According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US intelligence, Russia could be preparing a limited incursion against a NATO member state within weeks. The report comes as the war in Ukraine remains largely deadlocked and the impact of the conflict is increasingly felt inside Russia.
Analysts cited in the report suggest Vladimir Putin may seek to open a new front rather than risk being remembered as the leader who lost Ukraine, raising fresh questions about NATO’s readiness and resolve.
The opposite could also happen. Countries facing direct threats to their own territory are less able to provide military aid.
I think that would be less likely. They’ll see that the threat can be neutered via Ukraine and turn to them rather than simply wait it out which would result in a higher likelyhood of another attempt.