I don’t think the person you’re responding to is making any claims about AGI. But the fact is, the models are far, far more capable then they were even 3 years ago. I think that has more to do with the harnesses we have now that it does with the models. The models are a bit better (and way bigger) but the harness is where the capability comes from. Software dev has changed significantly in most places because the fact is, this shit is useful for those tasks. People, appropriately or not, are trying to apply that to every office job basically.
I don’t think that’s gonna pan out for anthropic or open AI financially, especially in the long term. But there has been a lot of progress in capability in the last 2-3 years. I think they’re right that if the timing works out badly, many employers could overcommit to AI and then collapse before they can correct once the bubble pops.
I don’t think the person you’re responding to is making any claims about AGI. But the fact is, the models are far, far more capable then they were even 3 years ago. I think that has more to do with the harnesses we have now that it does with the models. The models are a bit better (and way bigger) but the harness is where the capability comes from. Software dev has changed significantly in most places because the fact is, this shit is useful for those tasks. People, appropriately or not, are trying to apply that to every office job basically.
I don’t think that’s gonna pan out for anthropic or open AI financially, especially in the long term. But there has been a lot of progress in capability in the last 2-3 years. I think they’re right that if the timing works out badly, many employers could overcommit to AI and then collapse before they can correct once the bubble pops.