I don’t buy the bot narrative, but I also won’t say this is a genuine jump in Linux users. Rather, as someone who has done statical research before, a sudden jump like this feels like a change in how that data was gathered plus a rather high point on natural variance.

For starters, why would bot behavior change in a month? Any serious bot network would already be on Linux, so unless bot filtering got significantly worse in a single month, I’m skeptical on that front. I suppose it’s possible a patch to scrapping plugins happened, or a change in bot sensitivity on the researcher side, or something, but you’d assume someone would point that out.

However, Linux adoption explanations are also iffy. The “Year of the Linux” people point to summer being a factor, or maybe Steam machine release. Maybe someone went viral promoting it and somehow… doubled installs? Seems unlikely, although a small jump can be attribed to these factors I suppose.

But back to the statistics – all samples naturally vary over time and this can be a major factor month to month as statical noise exists. If it drops back to, say, 7 or 8%, that’s probably that factor, although this is much less an issue if the sample is large (which I think it is?). It’s also possible there’s a change in measurement error, such as Unknowns getting parsed correctly this month, though I’m not sure if that can explain most of the chunk coming out from Windows. I think these are the explanations I’m leaning towards, though (e.g. the Linux was there all along!)

All I can say from my experience is a jump like this is unnatural and usually points to variance and/or measurement error. Rather than the actual population having a change, the researcher does something different that changes results. It doesn’t necessarily mean the new results are biased (they might be less biased!), but it also doesn’t mean reality has suddenly changed. After all, we’re talking about a doubling of the population; if 300 million use the Internet in the US, that’s 15 million people changing to Linux in a month.

Hmm … Bike Courier sounds more like an ideal job in a 15 minute walkable city. In most parts of the US, not so much.